Data Challenge 5: Bringing It All Together

Rocio Jaime, Sophie Li, Ester Zhao

St. Himark Timeline of Events

View timeline on Google Sheets

Time Event Source
2020-04-06 14:00:00 Initial earthquake
2020-04-06 14:36:00 AlwaysSafePowerCompany refers to recent earthquake in Y*int message. Y*int @AlwaysSafePowerCompany
2020-04-06 16:00:00 First wave of Rumble app reports Rumble app
2020-04-08 1:00:00 Power outtages across neighborhoods NA missing data in Y*int activity graphs
2020-04-08 8:42:00 AlwaysSafePowerCompany refers to second earthquake in Y*int message Y*int @AlwaysSafePowerCompany
2020-04-08 9:00:00 Second wave of Rumble reports Rumble app
2020-04-08 9:00:00 Large spike in earthquake-related Y*int messages Y*int activity graphs
2020-04-08 9:05:00 Magritte, 12th of July, Friday, and Jade bridges closed. Wilson Forest Highway closed. Y*int @DOT-StHimark
2020-04-08 9:15:00 All major bridges closed. Y*int @DeptTransport
2020-04-08 10:46:00 Wilson Forest Highway re-opened Y*int @DOT-StHimark
2020-04-08 11:00:00 Widespread power outtages. Unprecedented decrease in Y*int messages seen in activity graphs
2020-04-08 13:20:00 Magritte Bridge re-opened (one-lane). Y*int @DOT-StHimark
2020-04-08 16:00:00 Spike of radiation cpm at Sensor 9 (Old Town), sensor goes offline at 22:00 Mobile and static sensor activity graphs
2020-04-08 17:23:00 Spike of radiation cpm at Sensor 1 (Old Town) Mobile and static sensor activity graphs
2020-04-08 21:08:00 Spike of radiation cpm at Sensor 11 (Broadview) Mobile and static sensor activity graphs
2020-04-09 1:00:00 (Uncertain) Power outtage delays majority incoming reports across all neighborhoods. Rumble activity graphs
2020-04-09 4:25:00 Friday Bridge re-opened (one-lane). Y*int @DOT-StHimark
2020-04-09 4:25:00 Magritte Bridge experiencing severe congestion. Y*int @DOT-StHimark
2020-04-09 6:37:00 Jade Bridge open (one-lane). Y*int @DOT-StHimark
2020-04-09 14:00:00 Time of aftershock, or resuming of power across neighborhoods following aftershock. Large spike in Rumble activity graphs
2020-04-09 15:00:00 Large spike in earthquake-related Y*int messages. Y*int activity graphs
2020-04-09 15:00:00 Sustained level of radiation spikes in several neighborhoods. Mobile and static sensor activity graphs
2020-04-09 15:03:00 Magritte, Friday, Jade, 12th of July, and Tranky Doo bridges closed. Wilson Forest Highway closed. Y*int @DOT-StHimark
2020-04-09 19:30:00 Magritte, Friday bridges open (one-lane) Y*int @DOT-StHimark
2020-04-09 19:32:00 Jade Bridge open (one-lane) Y*int @DOT-StHimark

Suggested Resource Allocation Using Rumble App Data

The Rumble app begins to receive a small wave of damage reports starting on April 6,2020 at 16:00 briefly after the initial shock. A substantial surge of Rumble reports follows on April 8th at 9:00am, primarily in Old Town and the southern neighborhoods closer to the coast (Broadview, Chapparal,and Scenic Vista). Old Town sent the most reports with the highest occurring category being power. Because there were already efforts to modernize the electrical distribution system, it is possible that the outdated infrastructure was especially vulnerable to the earthquake. The Old Town area was also nearest to the epicenter of the earthquake’s aftershock. The southern neighborhoods had a greater number of reports pertaining to water and sewage.

We see a second surge of reports on the afternoon of April 9th, most likely due to a power outage which caused a delay of report receipts. It is possible that many of these reports were sent in between April 9th 3:00am to April 9th 12:00. During this window there were little to no reports sent from nearly all neighborhoods in St. Himark. Based on Rumble data alone, we’d recommend sending emergency services to Old Town(3), Pepper Mill (12), and the southernmost neighborhoods -- Broadview, Chaparral, and Scenic Vista -- due to the significantly higher volume of Rumble reports.

Y*Int Social Media Data and Possible Usage

Many citizens of St. Himark use the social media app Y*int to communicate with their community. We decided to look into whether Y*int could be used as a viable method for city officials to survey the wellbeing of the population, and potentially anticipate needs. In particular, we wanted to see if Y*int survelliance could be used as an alternative when the Rumble app experienced outages due to power loss.

This initial graph displays the Y*int messages by neighborhood, and show a large spike midday on April 8th, when the largest and most disruptive earthquake event occurred.

In order to make raw Y*int data useful, we created functions that clean the data to remove most bots and business accounts that are not relevant. The file containing these functions can be found at clean_yint_data.ipynb.

Using this function, officials can pass in new Y*int data files to receive updated graphs that display messages related to earthquakes or disasters. For example, the graph below displays the earthquake-related messages from the week of April 6th by neighborhood.

In order to evaluate the usefulness of Y*Int data as a potential alternative to the Rumble app, we mapped Rumble alerts and Y*int earthquake-related messages together. At midday on April 8th, we see a sharp decline in Rumble alerts, which we inferred was due to a mass power outage. Although Y*int data also experienced a serious of drops during that time frame, it was to a lesser extent than the Rumble app. As such, we conclude that while the Rumble app will be more useful for government officials to use on a regular basis for allocating resources, Y*int data created using our functions can be considered a feasible backup option.

Finally, we also used Y*int data to create a more comprehensive timeline of the events that occured over the past few days, for future reference. To do so, we pulled all messages sent by @AlwaysSafePowerCompany, @DOT-StHimark, and @DeptTransport.

Sensor Data Analysis

We examined the mobile and static sensor data in order to find potential radiation patterns. We plotted the mean radiation level per hour, and grouped each sensor by neighborhood. The Cheddarford, Palace Hills, and Downtown neighborhoods show moderately increasing levels of radiation starting on the evening of April 9th, while the Southwest neighborhood shows a more abrupt increase in counts per minute in the same time period.

Sophie inserts the rest of her stuff here!

Next Steps and Conclusions

The current situation in St. Himark is messy, and the unreliability of our different data streams makes it difficult to create a perfect picture of what is happening. We have done our best to make clear logical jumps using the data we have access to, however we acknowledge that there is room for error in these conclusions.

Given more time, our team would have liked to look into creating neighborhood profiles in order to gauge reliability of different reports. This would allow city officials to quickly gauge which neighborhoods were probably experiences power outages, and which truly had the highest priority for resource allocation.

Furthermore, we would have liked to do additional analysis on the ways that the Y*int social media network could be synthesized with other data streams to create a dynamic analysis of city conditions. A more involved online awareness would also allow the city to communicate more openly with citizens, which could boost morale and calm hysteria in case of further emergencies.